Sentiment Cycle Update and Holiday Wishes

I would like to wish you all Happy Holidays. This is a time of year to make sure we appreciate and spend quality time with the most important things in life to us.. our family and friends. Thank you for coming to my space on the internet and reading my intermittent ramblings.

Because it is a fun post that received may “hits” I want to post a quick update to the Justin Mamis Sentiment Cycle article I wrote last week .

As a reminder, the Justin Mamis Sentiment Cycle looks like this.

Last Sunday I wrote how the SPX / SPY chart was looking like it was following this cycle very closely and posted this chart.

Here is an updated chart after this week’s action. Even though I have seen this cycle time and time again in many time frames, I am still amazed at how well and how often it can play out. It will be fun to watch as it continues to unfold.

Peace and Happiness to all

Bruce

Are We Ready To Return To The High’s? – Justin Mamis Sentiment Cycle May Think So

Late last year I wrote a post about the Justin Mamis Sentiment Cycle. I won’t rewrite the details again but it can be read here . I like to use the S&P 500 / SPY charts as my proxy for the overall markets and like everyone else I have been sitting here trying to figure out where this market may be going over the next several weeks. Macro cross currents are dominating the news as well as our mindset keeping many out of the market, or leaning to the short side. As I was flipping my coin to make a guess I looked up at the wall over my desk and the chart of the Justin Mamis Sentiment Cyle caught my eye.

The similarity of the SPY/S&P 500 chart to the Mamis Cycle is uncanny. Lets first review the Justim Mamis Sentiment Cycle chart.

Now lets look at a chart of the SPY

The similarity is striking. Of course I’m not going to place a trade today on this, but if we break back over the green 200ma line again I think there is a very good chance we will revisit the previous highs quickly. I have seen this cycle play out enough times to feel there is a high probability of it working out once again. I am looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

Happy Holidays to all my fellow traders.

It’s All About The Setup – The Key To Consistent Profits

Every day I see so many trade ideas on Twitter/Stocktwits, the financial media, free emailed stock ideas, blogs etc. The list is endless. With all these great ideas, why aren’t all traders rich and making money. All we have to do is trade those ideas. Why do many fail and lose. The answer is that most technical traders do not have a day in and day out process with a defined setup or setups that they focus on consistently. Most traders are continually looking for the next undiscovered indicator, the next holy grail or just plain following who they perceive as the new hot hand. They never take the time to define their own setup, their own business plan and run their trading as their own business.

The reason I am writing this post is because of a discussion that Pradeep Bonde of Stockbee has been having on his member site the past couple of days and is continuing. He has a free public blog and a pay service (I just noticed there is some additional material about the topic of this blog post in his public blog). The discussion is focused on setups. What is a setup, why it is important, why a setup has been at the heart of the famous successful traders like Livermore, Darvas, Zanger and O’Neil. With Pradeep’s permission I am providing one post from this multiple day interactive tutorial/discussion. Read it a couple of times. Post it on your wall. Ask yourself what is your setup that makes you money day in and day out?

A good setup idea can change your financial future forever…..

If you do not understand the concept behind setup selection you will struggle for many years.

Scanning for stocks is not going to help you. Preparing elaborate watch lists is not going to help you. Unless you understand setups as key to profitable trading you are unlikely to make much money.

IBD method might be about momentum/growth but ultimately it boils down to setup and IBD has very strictly defined setups.

Same way any successful trader has well defined setup and then they exploit it day in and day out in favorable market conditions.

If you have well defined setup , you would be able to instantly recognize good opportunities and enter or exit them.

If you have well defined setup, you will be able to prioritize ideas and not waste time on marginal stocks or others ideas.

If you have setup oriented mentality you will ask everyone who posts trade idea to find out what setup generated that trade.

If you have well defined setup you will know instantly your entry, exit stops rules and not be a clueless person post entry. You will not be asking others what you should be doing.

If you have well defined setup, you will not be easily influenced by any and every new tactic people talk about or sell as the new new thing.

If you have well defined setups you would not be making new rules and adjustment everyday.

If you have well defined setup you don’t need CNBC, Cramer, Stocktwits, Stockbee site, or any other distraction. All you need is your software to generate your setup idea and your own guidelines

Setup selection is the only way to eliminate the problem of cognitive load involved in trading.

Sooner you understand that the better it is. Key to “profitable” trading is setup selection.

In the beginning master just 1 or 2 basic setup. It will take you 3 to 6 months to perfect it. Most people who have very well defined setups have taken 5 to 10 years to arrive at it. This series of posts will help you compress that period to 3 to 6 months if you seriously put your heart or soul in to it.

and you just need one or at best two well defined setup ideas to make lot of money in the market.

A good setup idea can change your financial future forever…..

It is my contention that you only need to trade 2 or 3 solid proven setups that meet your risk tolerance and personal style to be sucessful in this business. For me they are Bull Flags, Bear Flags, Horizontal/Rectangle Consolidations within a trend. Many trade Cup n Handles, Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Diamonds and many more.

You dont need to trade them all. Stockbee continually refers to the risk of Cognitive load that most suffer from in this business. If you make it too complex or worry about too many things, your mind will become so overloaded you will find you aren’t effective and confusion or mental gridlock occurs. The key to success in this business is simplicity and repetition, doing the same thing day in and day out.

Ask yourself. What is your favorite and most profitable pattern? Can you define, entry/exit/stop for each of your patterns? Can you describe your your pattern and how to trade it in simple terms to someone else? Do you keep adding other indicators to your patterns? Do additional indicators help or do you imagine that they do?

A solid tradeable pattern can be identified just by looking at price and volume. Many including myself will argue that you can be profitable with just price and volume patterns on your charts. I will admit that I am not a purist in that respect. The fact of the matter is that Techical Analysis is being practiced by many and even has become the core of Financial Media that used to call it voodoo up until just a year or two ago. With that many eyes on Technical Analysis you may want to include a couple of indicators on your daily chart because so many eyes are on them that they can be self fulfilling. These could include the 20ma (because its the center of a Bollinger Band), the 50ma and the 200ma. Don’t get carried away. All you want is something to help you confirm the validity of your pattern. If it doesn’t do that, then take it off your setup.

If you enjoy being part of the community on Twitter/Stocktwits your goal should be the see how many setups you can post to the stream. Its amazing how focused you can get on your own setups when you place them in public for many to see. Your goal with Twitter/Stocktwits should not to be to get trade ideas. If you see someone post an idea, try to figure out what their setup is. How does it match your setup and can you learn how to make your setup more effective by seeing how others define theirs.

In my opinion one of the best ways to use Stocktwits is to take advantage of the charts posted on Chart.ly. Try this process. Identify, on your own, stock trade opportunities that match your setup. Post the chart to Chart.ly. Then..only after you posted your setup..type the symbol into the Chart.ly search box and look at all the charts of the same stock that have been posted by others. See if their setup matches your own. See if there is something you can learn from their setup on the same stock that will help you define your setup better.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE SETUP

I will close this post out with..a setup IS NOT

– something Cramer recommends

– a stock that is so oversold it “should” bounce

– a stock that is so overbought it “should” pull back

– anyone else’s idea you follow blindly that does not match a pattern you already trade every day

– any trade based off a macro theme such as “financials are toast, they will keep dropping”

– a hot tip you got from some “insider”